Union Magdalena vs Independiente Santa Fe

26 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Union Magdalena

Independiente Santa Fe

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.5% DRAW 27.3% AWAY 40.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.9% 3.11 DRAW 27.4% 3.50 AWAY 41.7% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Union Magdalena

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union Magdalena Independiente Santa Fe

Shots 13.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union Magdalena Independiente Santa Fe

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union Magdalena Independiente Santa Fe

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Union Magdalena ↑ +0.63 (+24.7%)

Independiente Santa Fe ↓ -0.12 (-4.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.