Sparta Gryfice vs Arkonia Szczecin

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Sparta Gryfice

Arkonia Szczecin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 23.5% DRAW 21.8% AWAY 54.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 20.8% 4.56 DRAW 21.9% 4.33 AWAY 57.4% 1.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sparta Gryfice relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 23.5% win probability, compared with 20.8% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sparta Gryfice

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sparta Gryfice Arkonia Szczecin

Shots 16.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 2.8 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours Sparta Gryfice, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sparta Gryfice Arkonia Szczecin

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 1.0

Arkonia Szczecin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sparta Gryfice Arkonia Szczecin

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Sparta Gryfice ↑ +0.66 (+16.9%)

Arkonia Szczecin = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.