Burgos (W) vs Arratia CD (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Burgos (W)

Arratia CD (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.2% DRAW 20.2% AWAY 12.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 68.5% 1.36 DRAW 20.1% 4.65 AWAY 11.5% 8.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Arratia CD (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Burgos (W) Arratia CD (W)

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Burgos (W) Arratia CD (W)

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 1.5

Arratia CD (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Burgos (W) Arratia CD (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Arratia CD (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Burgos (W) = (0.0%)

Arratia CD (W) ↑ +2.65 (+48.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.