MFA Zalgiris (W) vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.7 pp

MFA Zalgiris (W)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.4% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 15.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.7% 1.73 DRAW 25.2% 3.81 AWAY 19.1% 5.03

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates MFA Zalgiris (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.4% win probability, compared with 55.7% implied by the market. The 5.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

MFA Zalgiris (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

MFA Zalgiris (W) FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W)

Shots 21.8 · On target 10.8 Shots 12.3 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours MFA Zalgiris (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

MFA Zalgiris (W) FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W)

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.8

MFA Zalgiris (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

MFA Zalgiris (W) FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours MFA Zalgiris (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

MFA Zalgiris (W) = (0.0%)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) ↑ +1.33 (+35.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.