CD Diocesano vs CP Chinato

13 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

CD Diocesano

CP Chinato

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.3% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 33.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.2% 2.26 DRAW 28.4% 3.20 AWAY 31.4% 2.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: CP Chinato

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Diocesano CP Chinato

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Diocesano CP Chinato

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 3.5 · On target allowed 1.8

CP Chinato has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Diocesano CP Chinato

The combined recent performance profile favours CP Chinato.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

CD Diocesano ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

CP Chinato ↑ +0.02 (+0.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.