Rec de Huelva vs Cacereno

16 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Rec de Huelva

Cacereno

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.2% DRAW 31.6% AWAY 28.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.1% 2.54 DRAW 31.4% 3.00 AWAY 31.4% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Rec de Huelva relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.2% win probability, compared with 37.1% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Rec de Huelva has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rec de Huelva Cacereno

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Rec de Huelva, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rec de Huelva Cacereno

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Rec de Huelva has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rec de Huelva Cacereno

The combined recent performance profile favours Rec de Huelva.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Rec de Huelva ↓ -0.09 (-3.2%)

Cacereno ↑ +0.50 (+20.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.