Orihuela vs Real Murcia

16 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Orihuela

Real Murcia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.3% DRAW 29.4% AWAY 41.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.0% 3.65 DRAW 28.8% 3.30 AWAY 45.2% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Orihuela relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 29.3% win probability, compared with 26.0% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Orihuela has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Orihuela Real Murcia

Shots 12.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Orihuela, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Orihuela Real Murcia

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Orihuela has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Orihuela Real Murcia

The combined recent performance profile favours Orihuela.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Orihuela ↓ -0.30 (-7.5%)

Real Murcia ↑ +0.26 (+14.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.