Comercial FC vs São José dos Campos FC

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Comercial FC

São José dos Campos FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.4% DRAW 28.8% AWAY 43.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.7% 3.33 DRAW 28.9% 3.30 AWAY 42.4% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: São José dos Campos FC

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Comercial FC São José dos Campos FC

Shots 7.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 6.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Comercial FC São José dos Campos FC

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 4.0

São José dos Campos FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Comercial FC São José dos Campos FC

The combined recent performance profile favours São José dos Campos FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Comercial FC ↑ +0.58 (+21.1%)

São José dos Campos FC ↓ -0.12 (-5.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.