Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Fram Reykjavik (W)

25 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

Fram Reykjavik (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.0% DRAW 20.5% AWAY 23.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.0% 1.81 DRAW 21.8% 4.38 AWAY 25.2% 3.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Thor/KA Akureyri (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.0% win probability, compared with 53.0% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Fram Reykjavik (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Fram Reykjavik (W)

Shots 7.5 · On target 2.5 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Fram Reykjavik (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Fram Reykjavik (W)

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 18.8 · On target allowed 9.0

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Fram Reykjavik (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) ↑ +0.10 (+5.6%)

Fram Reykjavik (W) ↑ +0.30 (+8.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.