Lokomotiv Tashkent vs FC Bunyodkor

15 Sep 2026 · 15:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Lokomotiv Tashkent

FC Bunyodkor

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 64.6% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 12.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.0% 1.53 DRAW 24.5% 3.82 AWAY 14.5% 6.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Lokomotiv Tashkent relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.6% win probability, compared with 61.0% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Lokomotiv Tashkent has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lokomotiv Tashkent FC Bunyodkor

Shots 10.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 7.8 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Lokomotiv Tashkent, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lokomotiv Tashkent FC Bunyodkor

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 6.5

Lokomotiv Tashkent has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lokomotiv Tashkent FC Bunyodkor

The combined recent performance profile favours Lokomotiv Tashkent.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Lokomotiv Tashkent ↓ -1.92 (-55.6%)

FC Bunyodkor ↑ +4.32 (+201.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.