Sportivo Bella Italia vs Deportivo LSM

14 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Sportivo Bella Italia

Deportivo LSM

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.1% DRAW 28.9% AWAY 21.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.0% 2.00 DRAW 29.4% 3.20 AWAY 23.7% 3.97

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sportivo Bella Italia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.1% win probability, compared with 47.0% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Sportivo Bella Italia

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo Bella Italia Deportivo LSM

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo Bella Italia Deportivo LSM

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Sportivo Bella Italia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo Bella Italia Deportivo LSM

The combined recent performance profile favours Sportivo Bella Italia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

No movement data

Sportivo Bella Italia —

Deportivo LSM —

No stored odds movement is available for this match.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.