Swindon Supermarine vs Bristol Manor Farm

14 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Swindon Supermarine

Bristol Manor Farm

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.6% DRAW 20.2% AWAY 16.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.4% 1.55 DRAW 21.2% 4.57 AWAY 16.5% 5.87

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Swindon Supermarine

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Swindon Supermarine Bristol Manor Farm

Shots 12.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Swindon Supermarine, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Swindon Supermarine Bristol Manor Farm

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 0.8

Bristol Manor Farm has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Swindon Supermarine Bristol Manor Farm

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Swindon Supermarine ↓ -0.07 (-4.0%)

Bristol Manor Farm ↑ +1.87 (+46.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.