Real Espana Reserves vs CD Choloma Reserves

14 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Real Espana Reserves

CD Choloma Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 72.5% DRAW 16.6% AWAY 10.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.7% 1.30 DRAW 18.1% 5.00 AWAY 12.1% 7.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Real Espana Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 72.5% win probability, compared with 69.7% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CD Choloma Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Espana Reserves CD Choloma Reserves

Shots 9.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Espana Reserves CD Choloma Reserves

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.8

Real Espana Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Espana Reserves CD Choloma Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Real Espana Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Real Espana Reserves = (0.0%)

CD Choloma Reserves ↑ +0.98 (+15.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.