Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC

19 Sep 2026 · 10:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Darwin Olympic

Port Darwin FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.5% DRAW 16.6% AWAY 12.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.8% 1.45 DRAW 18.5% 5.25 AWAY 14.7% 6.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Darwin Olympic relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.5% win probability, compared with 66.8% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Darwin Olympic has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Darwin Olympic Port Darwin FC

Shots 14.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Darwin Olympic, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Darwin Olympic Port Darwin FC

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 6.3

Darwin Olympic has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Darwin Olympic Port Darwin FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Darwin Olympic.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Darwin Olympic ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

Port Darwin FC ↑ +2.10 (+46.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.