Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia

20 Sep 2026 · 16:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

CSKA Sofia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 12.1% DRAW 24.0% AWAY 63.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.0% 6.83 DRAW 25.0% 3.84 AWAY 61.0% 1.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CSKA Sofia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.8% win probability, compared with 61.0% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CSKA Sofia

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lokomotiv Plovdiv CSKA Sofia

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 19.3 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours CSKA Sofia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv CSKA Sofia

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv CSKA Sofia

The combined recent performance profile favours CSKA Sofia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↑ +0.08 (+1.2%)

CSKA Sofia ↑ +0.07 (+4.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.