Ajax U19 vs AZ U19

15 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Ajax U19

AZ U19

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.8% DRAW 23.9% AWAY 32.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.5% 2.38 DRAW 24.7% 3.90 AWAY 34.7% 2.78

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ajax U19 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.8% win probability, compared with 40.5% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: AZ U19

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ajax U19 AZ U19

Shots 4.5 · On target 1.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours AZ U19, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ajax U19 AZ U19

Shots allowed 1.8 · On target allowed 0.5 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Ajax U19 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ajax U19 AZ U19

The combined recent performance profile favours Ajax U19.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Ajax U19 ↑ +0.03 (+1.3%)

AZ U19 ↑ +0.43 (+18.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.