UD Leiria U23 vs Gil Vicente U23

21 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.2 pp

UD Leiria U23

Gil Vicente U23

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.6% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 32.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.5% 2.41 DRAW 25.5% 3.64 AWAY 36.1% 2.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates UD Leiria U23 clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.6% win probability, compared with 38.5% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gil Vicente U23

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

UD Leiria U23 Gil Vicente U23

Shots 7.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UD Leiria U23 Gil Vicente U23

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 6.0

UD Leiria U23 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UD Leiria U23 Gil Vicente U23

The combined recent performance profile favours UD Leiria U23.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

UD Leiria U23 ↓ -0.28 (-10.4%)

Gil Vicente U23 ↑ +0.20 (+8.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.