Ballymena Utd Reserves vs Larne Reserves

14 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Ballymena Utd Reserves

Larne Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.1% DRAW 18.8% AWAY 55.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.5% 3.50 DRAW 20.3% 4.75 AWAY 52.2% 1.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Larne Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.1% win probability, compared with 52.2% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Larne Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ballymena Utd Reserves Larne Reserves

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Larne Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ballymena Utd Reserves Larne Reserves

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Larne Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ballymena Utd Reserves Larne Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Larne Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Ballymena Utd Reserves ↓ -0.20 (-5.4%)

Larne Reserves ↑ +0.25 (+15.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.