Excursionistas Reserves vs San Martin Burzaco Reserves

15 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Excursionistas Reserves

San Martin Burzaco Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.0% DRAW 15.0% AWAY 12.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.4% 1.31 DRAW 16.3% 5.75 AWAY 12.4% 7.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Excursionistas Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Excursionistas Reserves San Martin Burzaco Reserves

Shots 7.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 7.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Excursionistas Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Excursionistas Reserves San Martin Burzaco Reserves

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Excursionistas Reserves San Martin Burzaco Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Excursionistas Reserves ↑ +0.06 (+4.8%)

San Martin Burzaco Reserves ↑ +0.05 (+0.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.