Leones de Rosario Reserves vs Sacachispas Reserves

15 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Leones de Rosario Reserves

Sacachispas Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.2% DRAW 24.0% AWAY 19.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.3% 1.71 DRAW 25.0% 3.65 AWAY 21.7% 4.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Leones de Rosario Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.2% win probability, compared with 53.3% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Leones de Rosario Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leones de Rosario Reserves Sacachispas Reserves

Shots 13.8 · On target 6.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Leones de Rosario Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leones de Rosario Reserves Sacachispas Reserves

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Leones de Rosario Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leones de Rosario Reserves Sacachispas Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Leones de Rosario Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Leones de Rosario Reserves ↑ +0.01 (+0.6%)

Sacachispas Reserves ↑ +0.21 (+5.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.