Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares de Cordoba

23 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Independiente Medellin

Jaguares de Cordoba

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.4% DRAW 17.4% AWAY 8.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 72.8% 1.33 DRAW 18.3% 5.30 AWAY 8.8% 11.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Independiente Medellin has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente Medellin Jaguares de Cordoba

Shots 14.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Independiente Medellin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente Medellin Jaguares de Cordoba

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Independiente Medellin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente Medellin Jaguares de Cordoba

The combined recent performance profile favours Independiente Medellin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Independiente Medellin ↓ -0.03 (-2.2%)

Jaguares de Cordoba ↑ +0.20 (+2.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.