Newell's Old Boys (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)

18 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Newell's Old Boys (W)

Gimnasia LP (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.0% DRAW 28.6% AWAY 42.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.3% 2.88 DRAW 28.9% 3.22 AWAY 38.8% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Gimnasia LP (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.4% win probability, compared with 38.8% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gimnasia LP (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Newell's Old Boys (W) Gimnasia LP (W)

Shots 4.5 · On target 2.0 Shots 10.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Gimnasia LP (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Newell's Old Boys (W) Gimnasia LP (W)

Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 7.5

Gimnasia LP (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Newell's Old Boys (W) Gimnasia LP (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Gimnasia LP (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Newell's Old Boys (W) ↑ +0.08 (+2.9%)

Gimnasia LP (W) ↓ -0.13 (-5.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.