CD Sal y Mar vs AD Tenancingo

16 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

CD Sal y Mar

AD Tenancingo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.1% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 30.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.1% 2.20 DRAW 26.6% 3.40 AWAY 32.4% 2.79

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CD Sal y Mar relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.1% win probability, compared with 41.1% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CD Sal y Mar

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Sal y Mar AD Tenancingo

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 3.3 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours CD Sal y Mar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Sal y Mar AD Tenancingo

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 0.5

AD Tenancingo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Sal y Mar AD Tenancingo

The combined recent performance profile favours CD Sal y Mar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

CD Sal y Mar ↓ -0.05 (-2.2%)

AD Tenancingo ↓ -0.05 (-1.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.