Atletico Nacional (W) vs Deportivo Cali (W)

17 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Atletico Nacional (W)

Deportivo Cali (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.7% DRAW 32.4% AWAY 34.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.7% 2.95 DRAW 31.8% 2.94 AWAY 36.4% 2.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Nacional (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Nacional (W) Deportivo Cali (W)

Shots 10.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Nacional (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Nacional (W) Deportivo Cali (W)

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Nacional (W) Deportivo Cali (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Atletico Nacional (W) ↑ +0.27 (+12.4%)

Deportivo Cali (W) ↓ -0.55 (-16.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.