CD Ayense vs Tapatio

16 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

CD Ayense

Tapatio

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.1% DRAW 23.0% AWAY 22.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.0% 1.75 DRAW 24.1% 3.70 AWAY 24.8% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CD Ayense relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.1% win probability, compared with 51.0% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tapatio

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Ayense Tapatio

Shots 7.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Tapatio, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Ayense Tapatio

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 5.3

CD Ayense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Ayense Tapatio

The combined recent performance profile favours CD Ayense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

CD Ayense = (0.0%)

Tapatio = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.