Forres Mechanics vs Buckie Thistle

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Forres Mechanics

Buckie Thistle

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.5% DRAW 21.3% AWAY 52.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.8% 3.95 DRAW 21.7% 4.33 AWAY 54.6% 1.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Forres Mechanics relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 26.5% win probability, compared with 23.8% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Buckie Thistle

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Forres Mechanics Buckie Thistle

Shots 5.0 · On target 1.8 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Buckie Thistle, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Forres Mechanics Buckie Thistle

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Forres Mechanics has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Forres Mechanics Buckie Thistle

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Forres Mechanics ↑ +0.15 (+3.8%)

Buckie Thistle ↑ +0.05 (+3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.