Southall vs Ascot Utd

16 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Southall

Ascot Utd

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.1% DRAW 22.1% AWAY 21.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.5% 1.83 DRAW 23.4% 4.10 AWAY 24.0% 4.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Southall relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.1% win probability, compared with 52.5% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ascot Utd

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Southall Ascot Utd

Shots 2.5 · On target 1.5 Shots 6.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Ascot Utd, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Southall Ascot Utd

Shots allowed 2.3 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Southall has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Southall Ascot Utd

The combined recent performance profile favours Southall.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Southall ↓ -0.02 (-1.1%)

Ascot Utd ↑ +0.90 (+29.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.