Lichfield City vs Newcastle Town

16 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.2 pp

Lichfield City

Newcastle Town

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 6.2% DRAW 9.6% AWAY 84.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 8.8% 11.00 DRAW 12.2% 8.00 AWAY 79.0% 1.23

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Newcastle Town clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 84.2% win probability, compared with 79.0% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Newcastle Town has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lichfield City Newcastle Town

Shots 6.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 12.8 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Newcastle Town, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lichfield City Newcastle Town

Shots allowed 23.5 · On target allowed 9.0 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Newcastle Town has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lichfield City Newcastle Town

The combined recent performance profile favours Newcastle Town.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Lichfield City ↑ +6.40 (+138.9%)

Newcastle Town ↓ -0.34 (-21.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.