Deren FC vs FC Ulaanbaatar

17 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Deren FC

FC Ulaanbaatar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.6% DRAW 21.3% AWAY 36.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.8% 2.25 DRAW 22.4% 4.00 AWAY 37.7% 2.38

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Deren FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.6% win probability, compared with 39.8% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Deren FC

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deren FC FC Ulaanbaatar

Shots 11.8 · On target 6.8 Shots 15.3 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deren FC FC Ulaanbaatar

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.3

Deren FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deren FC FC Ulaanbaatar

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Deren FC ↓ -0.01 (-0.4%)

FC Ulaanbaatar = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.