Guria Lanchkhuti vs Dinamo Tbilisi II

17 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Guria Lanchkhuti

Dinamo Tbilisi II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.6% DRAW 15.8% AWAY 6.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.3% 1.25 DRAW 17.7% 5.25 AWAY 8.1% 11.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Guria Lanchkhuti relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.6% win probability, compared with 74.3% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Guria Lanchkhuti has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Guria Lanchkhuti Dinamo Tbilisi II

Shots 17.5 · On target 8.5 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Guria Lanchkhuti, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Guria Lanchkhuti Dinamo Tbilisi II

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Guria Lanchkhuti has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Guria Lanchkhuti Dinamo Tbilisi II

The combined recent performance profile favours Guria Lanchkhuti.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Guria Lanchkhuti ↓ -0.57 (-29.8%)

Dinamo Tbilisi II ↑ +4.40 (+67.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.