Carlos Manucci vs CD Universidad San Martin

26 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Carlos Manucci

CD Universidad San Martin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.0% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 19.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.4% 1.92 DRAW 28.6% 3.32 AWAY 22.0% 4.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Carlos Manucci relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.0% win probability, compared with 49.4% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Carlos Manucci

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Carlos Manucci CD Universidad San Martin

Shots 7.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Carlos Manucci CD Universidad San Martin

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Carlos Manucci has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Carlos Manucci CD Universidad San Martin

The combined recent performance profile favours Carlos Manucci.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Carlos Manucci = (0.0%)

CD Universidad San Martin ↑ +0.76 (+21.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.