Puerto Nuevo Reserves vs Lujan Reserves

17 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.4 pp

Puerto Nuevo Reserves

Lujan Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.0% DRAW 26.9% AWAY 45.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.8% 2.86 DRAW 27.6% 3.30 AWAY 40.6% 2.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Lujan Reserves clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.0% win probability, compared with 40.6% implied by the market. The 4.4 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Lujan Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Puerto Nuevo Reserves Lujan Reserves

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 14.3 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Lujan Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Puerto Nuevo Reserves Lujan Reserves

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 1.3

Lujan Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Puerto Nuevo Reserves Lujan Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Lujan Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Puerto Nuevo Reserves ↑ +0.06 (+2.3%)

Lujan Reserves ↓ -0.19 (-7.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.