El Nacional vs Cumbaya

26 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

El Nacional

Cumbaya

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.4% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 38.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.7% 3.00 DRAW 29.6% 3.22 AWAY 38.7% 2.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: El Nacional

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

El Nacional Cumbaya

Shots 15.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours El Nacional, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

El Nacional Cumbaya

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Cumbaya has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

El Nacional Cumbaya

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

El Nacional ↓ -0.75 (-20.0%)

Cumbaya ↑ +0.59 (+31.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.