Persipura Jayapura vs Tornado FC Pekanbaru

18 Sep 2026 · 10:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.2 pp

Persipura Jayapura

Tornado FC Pekanbaru

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 21.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.2% 1.85 DRAW 27.0% 3.30 AWAY 24.8% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Persipura Jayapura clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.4% win probability, compared with 48.2% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Persipura Jayapura

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Persipura Jayapura Tornado FC Pekanbaru

Shots 15.5 · On target 1.8 Shots 9.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Tornado FC Pekanbaru, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Persipura Jayapura Tornado FC Pekanbaru

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.3

Persipura Jayapura has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Persipura Jayapura Tornado FC Pekanbaru

The combined recent performance profile favours Persipura Jayapura.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Persipura Jayapura ↓ -0.45 (-19.6%)

Tornado FC Pekanbaru ↑ +0.90 (+33.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.