La Luz Reserves vs Liverpool Montevideo Reserves

21 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

La Luz Reserves

Liverpool Montevideo Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.6% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 35.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.5% 2.55 DRAW 28.2% 3.30 AWAY 35.4% 2.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Liverpool Montevideo Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

La Luz Reserves Liverpool Montevideo Reserves

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 9.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

La Luz Reserves Liverpool Montevideo Reserves

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

La Luz Reserves Liverpool Montevideo Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

La Luz Reserves ↑ +0.46 (+21.9%)

Liverpool Montevideo Reserves ↓ -0.25 (-8.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.