Club Atletico Progreso Reserves vs Montevideo Wanderers Reserves

21 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Club Atletico Progreso Reserves

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.0% DRAW 25.3% AWAY 47.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.0% 3.43 DRAW 25.7% 3.60 AWAY 47.2% 1.96

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Montevideo Wanderers Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Club Atletico Progreso Reserves Montevideo Wanderers Reserves

Shots 8.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Club Atletico Progreso Reserves Montevideo Wanderers Reserves

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Club Atletico Progreso Reserves Montevideo Wanderers Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Club Atletico Progreso Reserves ↑ +0.28 (+8.7%)

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.