Deportivo Maldonado Reserves vs Atletico River Plate Reserves

21 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

Atletico River Plate Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.0% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 21.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.0% 1.80 DRAW 25.6% 3.58 AWAY 23.4% 3.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Deportivo Maldonado Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.0% win probability, compared with 51.0% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves Atletico River Plate Reserves

Shots 16.0 · On target 6.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Deportivo Maldonado Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves Atletico River Plate Reserves

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 7.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves Atletico River Plate Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Maldonado Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Deportivo Maldonado Reserves ↓ -0.26 (-12.6%)

Atletico River Plate Reserves ↑ +0.92 (+30.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.