Club Oriental Reserves vs Penarol Reserves

21 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Club Oriental Reserves

Penarol Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 18.5% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 56.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.1% 5.01 DRAW 25.2% 3.80 AWAY 55.7% 1.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Club Oriental Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Club Oriental Reserves Penarol Reserves

Shots 11.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Club Oriental Reserves Penarol Reserves

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Penarol Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Club Oriental Reserves Penarol Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Penarol Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Club Oriental Reserves ↑ +1.76 (+45.1%)

Penarol Reserves = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.