Cerro Largo Reserves vs Nacional de Montevideo Reserves

21 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.7 pp

Cerro Largo Reserves

Nacional de Montevideo Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 18.5% DRAW 21.7% AWAY 59.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.4% 4.20 DRAW 23.5% 4.00 AWAY 54.1% 1.74

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Nacional de Montevideo Reserves clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.8% win probability, compared with 54.1% implied by the market. The 5.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nacional de Montevideo Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cerro Largo Reserves Nacional de Montevideo Reserves

Shots 4.0 · On target 1.5 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Nacional de Montevideo Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cerro Largo Reserves Nacional de Montevideo Reserves

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Nacional de Montevideo Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cerro Largo Reserves Nacional de Montevideo Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Nacional de Montevideo Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Cerro Largo Reserves ↑ +0.45 (+12.0%)

Nacional de Montevideo Reserves = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.