Palmeiras vs Fluminense
Match Overview
Model vs Market
The model identifies a slight model-market difference for a home win for Palmeiras. The difference indicates only a limited disagreement with market expectations.
Recent Performance
The teams met on 15 October 2026, when the current home side won (2–1 from the upcoming home side’s perspective). The current home side recorded 7 shots (5 on target), compared with 11 (3 on target) for the visitors.
The home side have won their last 4 matches, while the visitors have lost their last 3 matches.
Across 5 matches with complete shooting data, the home side averaged 18.4 shots per match and conceded 2 goals in that sample. Across 6 such matches, the visitors averaged 11.5 shots per match and conceded 8 goals.
In recent matches with recorded scores, the home side averaged 1.83 goals per match, against a weighted league reference of 1.02. The visitors averaged 1.67 goals per match, against their weighted league reference of 1.11.
Across recent matches with recorded shooting data, Palmeiras averaged 18.4 shots per match and Fluminense averaged 11.5. The home side's higher shooting volume offers some support for the model-market difference.
Pre-Match Betting Perspective
Despite the positive model-market difference, the available Pinnacle pre-match reference odds of 1.68 do not exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 1.72. At this price, a home win for Palmeiras does not appear sufficiently attractive. A more favourable price before kick-off would be needed.
Statistical Context & Data Notes
Historical samples may involve different opponents, competitions and dates; shared fixtures are not independent. Missing shooting data are excluded. No xG, shot-quality or opponent-strength adjustment. Editorial selection thresholds are not significance tests; no prediction is implied.
Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.
Model vs Market
Attacking Edge: Palmeiras
Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.
Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.
Market Momentum
Normalized implied probability movement · percentage points · as of 2026-10-21 21:13:02
6h window
| Outcome | Pinnacle | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| HOME | +2.46 pp | +2.51 pp |
| DRAW | -0.48 pp | -0.02 pp |
| AWAY | -1.98 pp | -2.48 pp |
Market Agreement: HOME UP
24h window
| Outcome | Pinnacle | Bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| HOME | +8.81 pp | +7.96 pp |
| DRAW | +0.33 pp | -1.44 pp |
| AWAY | -9.14 pp | -6.53 pp |
Market Agreement: HOME UP · AWAY DOWN
Based on available observation endpoints; continuous coverage is not verified. Unavailable values are not zero movements. Market movement is descriptive, not a prediction.
Explore recent match statisticsCharts and detailed data
Recent matches compared
Historical window: 180 days before kickoff. Shooting benchmarks require at least 30 complete matches.
How have the teams performed recently?
Most recent first · W win · D draw · L loss
Shots taken
Shots per match · difference from league average
Shots conceded
Opposition shots per match · difference from league average
Shots on target
Shots on target per match · difference from league average
Shots on target conceded
Opposition shots on target per match · difference from league average
Goals scored
Goals per match · difference from league average
Shot conversion
Goals per shot · difference from league average in percentage points
Goals conceded per shots faced
Goals conceded per opposition shot · difference from league average in percentage points
Individual match details
Palmeiras · individual matches
| Date | Venue | Result | Shots for/against | On target for/against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2026 | Away | 2–0 | 6 / 24 | 3 / 6 |
| 15/10/2026 | Away | 2–1 | 7 / 11 | 5 / 3 |
| 11/10/2026 | Home | 4–1 | 22 / 12 | 8 / 3 |
| 09/10/2026 | Home | 1–0 | 26 / 10 | 11 / 1 |
| 20/09/2026 | Away | 0–0 | 31 / 7 | 10 / 4 |
| 17/09/2026 | Away | 2–3 | — | — |
Fluminense · individual matches
| Date | Venue | Result | Shots for/against | On target for/against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2026 | Home | 1–2 | 8 / 16 | 2 / 5 |
| 15/10/2026 | Home | 1–2 | 11 / 7 | 3 / 5 |
| 11/10/2026 | Away | 0–1 | 11 / 17 | 3 / 6 |
| 09/10/2026 | Home | 4–0 | 22 / 8 | 10 / 0 |
| 20/09/2026 | Away | 3–1 | 10 / 20 | 6 / 7 |
| 16/09/2026 | Away | 1–2 | 7 / 16 | 2 / 6 |
The recent matches are the latest available before kickoff within the historical window and may include other competitions. The benchmark refers to the event league and is weighted by the home/away composition of the recent sample. Goals and shots may have different data coverage; conversion rates use only matches with paired observations. Benchmarks are reconstructed from match dates rather than certified data-capture timestamps. Opponent strength and chance quality (xG) are not adjusted for. Some statistics may be incomplete or anomalous. These indicators are descriptive, not predictive.