Nigeria U20 (W) vs Colombia U20 (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.5 pp

Nigeria U20 (W)

Colombia U20 (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.6% DRAW 28.9% AWAY 20.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.0% 2.06 DRAW 29.6% 3.20 AWAY 24.3% 3.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Nigeria U20 (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.6% win probability, compared with 46.0% implied by the market. The 4.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nigeria U20 (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nigeria U20 (W) Colombia U20 (W)

Shots 14.3 · On target 7.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Nigeria U20 (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nigeria U20 (W) Colombia U20 (W)

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nigeria U20 (W) Colombia U20 (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Nigeria U20 (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Nigeria U20 (W) ↓ -0.01 (-0.5%)

Colombia U20 (W) ↑ +0.70 (+21.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.