EC Sao Bernardo U20 vs Sao Paulo U20

21 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.9 pp

EC Sao Bernardo U20

Sao Paulo U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.3% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 65.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 15.1% 6.38 DRAW 25.2% 3.81 AWAY 59.7% 1.61

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Sao Paulo U20 clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 65.6% win probability, compared with 59.7% implied by the market. The 5.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sao Paulo U20 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

EC Sao Bernardo U20 Sao Paulo U20

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 24.3 · On target 11.3

Recent attacking output favours Sao Paulo U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

EC Sao Bernardo U20 Sao Paulo U20

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 1.5

Sao Paulo U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

EC Sao Bernardo U20 Sao Paulo U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Sao Paulo U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

EC Sao Bernardo U20 ↑ +1.88 (+41.8%)

Sao Paulo U20 = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.