Palmeiras U20 vs Ituano U20

25 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Palmeiras U20

Ituano U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 84.5% DRAW 11.1% AWAY 4.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 80.5% 1.19 DRAW 13.5% 7.10 AWAY 6.0% 16.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Palmeiras U20 clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 84.5% win probability, compared with 80.5% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Palmeiras U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Palmeiras U20 Ituano U20

Shots 21.0 · On target 10.0 Shots 10.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Palmeiras U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Palmeiras U20 Ituano U20

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Palmeiras U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Palmeiras U20 Ituano U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Palmeiras U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Palmeiras U20 ↓ -0.03 (-2.5%)

Ituano U20 ↑ +6.50 (+68.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.