Sao Paulo U20 vs EC Sao Bernardo U20

25 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.2 pp

Sao Paulo U20

EC Sao Bernardo U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 81.2% DRAW 14.2% AWAY 4.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 76.0% 1.30 DRAW 17.2% 5.75 AWAY 6.9% 14.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Sao Paulo U20 clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 81.2% win probability, compared with 76.0% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sao Paulo U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sao Paulo U20 EC Sao Bernardo U20

Shots 20.8 · On target 10.8 Shots 5.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Sao Paulo U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sao Paulo U20 EC Sao Bernardo U20

Shots allowed 3.5 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Sao Paulo U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sao Paulo U20 EC Sao Bernardo U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Sao Paulo U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Sao Paulo U20 ↓ -0.08 (-5.8%)

EC Sao Bernardo U20 ↑ +8.30 (+136.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.