CA River Plate vs Colon FC

26 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

CA River Plate

Colon FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.9% DRAW 28.7% AWAY 25.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.4% 2.18 DRAW 29.0% 3.26 AWAY 27.6% 3.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: CA River Plate

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA River Plate Colon FC

Shots 9.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA River Plate Colon FC

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.8

CA River Plate has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA River Plate Colon FC

The combined recent performance profile favours CA River Plate.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

CA River Plate = (0.0%)

Colon FC ↑ +0.43 (+14.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.