Nobeoka Agata vs MHI Nagasaki

19 Sep 2026 · 05:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Nobeoka Agata

MHI Nagasaki

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.8% DRAW 17.4% AWAY 7.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.0% 1.36 DRAW 19.4% 5.00 AWAY 9.6% 10.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Nobeoka Agata relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 74.8% win probability, compared with 71.0% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nobeoka Agata has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nobeoka Agata MHI Nagasaki

Shots 14.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 8.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Nobeoka Agata, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nobeoka Agata MHI Nagasaki

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 6.3

Nobeoka Agata has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nobeoka Agata MHI Nagasaki

The combined recent performance profile favours Nobeoka Agata.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nobeoka Agata = (0.0%)

MHI Nagasaki ↓ -0.10 (-1.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.