3 de Febrero FBC vs River Plate Asuncion

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

3 de Febrero FBC

River Plate Asuncion

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.6% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 46.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.8% 4.07 DRAW 27.3% 3.40 AWAY 49.9% 1.86

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for 3 de Febrero FBC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 25.6% win probability, compared with 22.8% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

3 de Febrero FBC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

3 de Febrero FBC River Plate Asuncion

Shots 13.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours 3 de Febrero FBC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

3 de Febrero FBC River Plate Asuncion

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 5.3

3 de Febrero FBC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

3 de Febrero FBC River Plate Asuncion

The combined recent performance profile favours 3 de Febrero FBC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

3 de Febrero FBC ↑ +0.07 (+1.6%)

River Plate Asuncion ↑ +0.11 (+6.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.