GrIFK (W) vs PaiHa (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

GrIFK (W)

PaiHa (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.7% DRAW 20.0% AWAY 24.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.9% 1.70 DRAW 21.4% 4.20 AWAY 25.7% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for GrIFK (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.7% win probability, compared with 52.9% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: GrIFK (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

GrIFK (W) PaiHa (W)

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 4.3 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours GrIFK (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

GrIFK (W) PaiHa (W)

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

GrIFK (W) PaiHa (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours GrIFK (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

GrIFK (W) = (0.0%)

PaiHa (W) = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.