Stockport (W) vs Chorley (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Stockport (W)

Chorley (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 82.8% DRAW 10.6% AWAY 6.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 80.0% 1.14 DRAW 12.4% 7.40 AWAY 7.6% 12.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Stockport (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 82.8% win probability, compared with 80.0% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Stockport (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Stockport (W) Chorley (W)

Shots 12.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Stockport (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Stockport (W) Chorley (W)

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.8

Stockport (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Stockport (W) Chorley (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Stockport (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Stockport (W) ↓ -0.02 (-2.1%)

Chorley (W) ↓ -4.50 (-27.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.