Lewes (W) vs Cheltenham Town (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Lewes (W)

Cheltenham Town (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 72.9% DRAW 15.0% AWAY 12.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.5% 1.33 DRAW 16.8% 5.50 AWAY 13.7% 6.78

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Lewes (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 72.9% win probability, compared with 69.5% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cheltenham Town (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lewes (W) Cheltenham Town (W)

Shots 6.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Cheltenham Town (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lewes (W) Cheltenham Town (W)

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 17.8 · On target allowed 8.0

Lewes (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lewes (W) Cheltenham Town (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Lewes (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Lewes (W) ↑ +0.05 (+4.1%)

Cheltenham Town (W) ↓ -0.36 (-5.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.